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Conspiracy Theory

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The Geopolitics of Ukraine: War & Rumors of War

Last Thursday the markets were roiled when Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko held a press conference wherein he threatened to declare war against Russia and essentially announced that he’s “all in” as they say.
By “all in,” he means that he has all of the Ukrainian military and all the reserves stationed against the Russian border and against the so-called Eastern line that the Russians themselves have drawn, behind which as Poroshenko correctly points out are Russian soldiers pretending to be Ukrainian insurgents that are occupying a third of Ukraine.
Poroshenko sees his position differently now that he got a little support from the European Union. Part of that support -- although the Europeans never expected that it could be drawn on because it’s standard language – was a commitment to support Poroshenko militarily. The money he got from the European Union comes with certain conditions.
One of those conditions is a standard term that the European Union makes when it starts passing money out again – that they’re willing to support Eastern European nation-states against Russian aggression.

The problem for the Europeans is they never expect to stand behind this because of the way it’s written – that Russia has to be the aggressor.

The Geopolitics of Ukraine: War & Rumors of War


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